In recent years, Everton have not gone into too many Merseyside derbies with greater momentum than Liverpool.

But ahead of the sides facing off at Hill Dickinson Stadium for the very first time on Sunday, the Toffees are the team in form, with three wins from their last five Premier League matches putting them eighth in the table. 

Liverpool, on the other hand, have won just one of their last five games in all competitions, losing the other four by an aggregate score of 10-1. 

Their sole win in that run came in their last league outing, against Fulham, but they were uninspired against Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday, as they slumped to a Champions League quarter-final exit at Anfield. 

Both Merseyside clubs now find themselves chasing similar aims in the closing weeks of the campaign, with Everton looking to gatecrash the top seven and Liverpool hoping to hold onto a top-five finish and ensure a Champions League spot for 2026-27.

Ahead of what could be one of the most evenly matched Merseyside derbies in several seasons, we delve into the Opta data to pick out the players and storylines to watch.

What's expected?   

The Opta supercomputer is finding this game extremely hard to predict.

Everton have a 37.3% win probability, whereas Liverpool are handed a 36.3% likelihood of taking the points, following 10,000 pre-match simulations.

The chance of a draw is 26.4%.

Looking at the supercomputer's overall season predictions, Liverpool are assigned a 69.1% chance of qualifying for the Champions League via a top-five finish, while Everton are given a 34.4% chance of making it into the top seven.

Liverpool have won their last two Premier League games against Everton, though both of those victories came at Anfield.

The Reds last won three consecutive Merseyside derbies in the league between April 2016 and April 2017.

Having won six of their first 15 Premier League meetings with Liverpool between 1992 and 1999 (40% – D6 L3), Everton have won just five of the last 52 league Merseyside derbies since the start of 2000 (9.6% – D20 L27).

Everton out to make happy memories at new home

The final derby at Goodison Park was a memorable one for those in blue as James Tarkowski's stunning, 97th-minute volley saw Everton salvage a 2-2 draw last February.

And Everton will be desperate to make some positive derby memories at their new home, as Liverpool make the nine-mile trip to Hill Dickinson Stadium for the very first time.

This will be the 62nd different stadium the Reds have played at in the Premier League, and should they win, they will become the first team to triumph at 60 different grounds in the competition's history. 

Everton have only won one of their last 14 home Premier League games against Liverpool, though 10 of those finished level (L3). 

Their last victory against their neighbours came in April 2024, a 2-0 win at Goodison in which Jarrad Branthwaite and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were on target.

David Moyes' side took a while to get fully accustomed to their new surroundings at Bramley-Moore Dock, but the venue feels a bit more homely after some strong recent results.

Everton have won their last two home Premier League games and are looking to win three in a row at Hill Dickinson for the very first time, in what will be their 17th game there.

Upon moving to Goodison – from Anfield – in 1892, they needed 18 matches to register three straight wins there.

The Toffees' win over Chelsea in March was inarguably their best display at their new ground so far, and Moyes will be looking for a repeat of that level of performance here.

And with Brentford, Fulham, Chelsea and Brighton – four of the teams around them – all playing on Saturday, Everton will know the lay of the land in the European race before kick-off.

A victory would also see Everton hit the 50-point mark in a Premier League season for the first time since 2020-21, when Carlo Ancelotti's team finished 10th with 59 points.

Liverpool rocked by Ekitike injury

Liverpool have endured a miserable season all in all, and even a top-five finish may not be enough to ensure Arne Slot keeps his job.

Their hopes of silverware are gone after comprehensive losses to Manchester City in the FA Cup and PSG in the Champions League, and Tuesday's second-leg defeat against the reigning European champions brought another setback.

Striker Hugo Ekitike went down with nobody around him during the first half and had to be carried off on a stretcher, with the club confirming on Thursday that he had ruptured his Achilles tendon.

Ekitike will now miss out on a trip to the World Cup with France, but Liverpool's immediate concern will be replacing his goals for the remainder of the club season.

Ekitike's debut campaign at Anfield will end with 17 goals and six assists across all competitions, in 45 matches. 

That is at least three more goal involvements than any other player has supplied for the Reds this season, with the outgoing Mohamed Salah (11 goals, nine assists) and midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai (12 goals, eight assists) both on 20.

Liverpool do at least have another big-money striker back in the fold, with Alexander Isak returning to action after missing a lengthy period due to a leg fracture, but the Swede was only deemed fit enough to play 45 minutes against PSG.

He has only started 11 times this term (19 appearances in total) and played just 859 minutes (all competitions), scoring three goals and providing one assist. 

Liverpool, who are only five points clear of their local rivals, have won just three of their last 22 away Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top half of the table (D10 L9), including losing six of their last seven (D1) since a 2-0 win at Man City in February 2025.

If Liverpool lose, it will take them into double figures for league defeats this term. It would be the first time they have lost 10 top-flight games since 2014-15 (12), and the most losses by a reigning Premier League champion since Leicester City lost 18 times in 2016-17.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Everton – Beto

Beto is in excellent form, registering five goal involvements in his last five Premier League appearances (four goals, one assist), with only Bruno Fernandes (seven) involved in more since the start of this run on February 28. 

No player has scored more goals in the competition during that time; Beto is level with Brentford's Igor Thiago going into this weekend's fixtures.

Beto also netted in the last Goodison derby, while he scored twice against Chelsea on his most recent appearance at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Liverpool – Florian Wirtz

Though it may be up to Salah and Isak to provide Liverpool's firepower in Ekitike's absence, Wirtz will be their chief creative outlet.

While the playmaker has underwhelmed at times since leaving Bayer Leverkusen, only Manchester United captain Fernandes (75) has created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than the German (50). 

Wirtz is the first Liverpool player to create 50 or more open-play chances in his first league campaign with the club since Salah in 2017-18 (53).