Manchester City's season rests on the next month.

After crashing out of the Champions League with a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid, sealing a 5-1 aggregate defeat, Man City take on Arsenal in the EFL Cup final on Sunday.

This showdown at Wembley between Pep Guardiola and his former assistant Mikel Arteta sees second take on first in the Premier League, but with City having dropped points in their last two top-flight outings, the Gunners hold a nine-point advantage.

The only team to win a Premier League title having ended 9+ points behind the top having played 30 or more games are City themselves in 2013-14 (nine points behind top on 20 April after 33 games).

On the other side of the international break, City then take on Liverpool in the FA Cup quarter-finals before facing Chelsea and Arsenal in the league.

Last season was the first campaign at City in which Guardiola failed to lead them to a major trophy. If the next four games don't go well, then it could mean he goes back-to-back without a major honour for the first time in his career.

It all starts on Sunday, as the master looks to get one over on the apprentice, and vice versa.

This is the first EFL Cup final in history played between the top two teams in the country, and using Opta insights, we delve into the key numbers ahead of the clash.

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal to come out on top, with the Gunners winning 51.9% of pre-match simulations.

Man City, meanwhile, won the match in 24.8% of the model's 10,000 sims.

This will be the second EFL Cup final to take place between two non-British managers of the same nationality. Previously, Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool beat fellow German Thomas Tuchel's Chelsea on penalties in 2022.

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six meetings with City in all competitions (W2 D4), having lost 15 of their previous 16 against them (W1).

But City have won their last four League Cup meetings with Arsenal by an aggregate score of 11-1. Their last defeat to the Gunners came in the third round in 2004-05 (1-2).

Arsenal have lost just one of their five meetings with City at Wembley (W3 D1), though that was in the 2018 League Cup final (0-3).

Only two teams, meanwhile, have beaten the Gunners in two major cup finals before – Newcastle United (1932 FA Cup, 1952 FA Cup) and Leeds United (1968 League Cup, 1972 FA Cup). 

The master...

Arteta has won only three of his 16 meetings with Guardiola, who has won all four of his EFL Cup finals in charge, doing so in four consecutive seasons between 2017-18 and 2020-21.

No manager has ever won the trophy five times.

In fact, City do enjoy this competition.

City have won eight of their nine EFL Cup finals, with only Liverpool winning the competition more often (10). The Citizens have triumphed in each of their last seven finals, since a loss to Wolves in 1974.

However, City have lost their last two major finals, both in the FA Cup in 2024 (vs Manchester United) and 2025 (vs Crystal Palace). They have never previously lost three consecutive major final appearances.

City have won all five of their League Cup games this season by a 2+ goal margin. Only two teams have ever won the trophy while winning every game by 2+ goals – City in 2013-14 and Man Utd in 2022-23.

One bright mark for City following their loss to Madrid was Erling Haaland snapping his scoreless streak.

Haaland has scored in each of his last three games against Arsenal in all competitions. However, he has never scored in six appearances at Wembley so far in his City career.

... And the apprentice

Arteta has won just one trophy at Arsenal, with the Gunners beating Chelsea 2-1 behind closed doors in the 2020 FA Cup final. Since then, Guardiola has led City to four league titles, one FA Cup, one EFL Cup and the Champions League.

A bad omen for Arteta, however, is that no Arsenal manager has ever won both of their first two major finals with the club.

But after years of being the nearly-men, it does seem like this could be Arsenal's time, and if they are to go on and win their first Premier League title since 2004, and possibly even more trophies, then getting that first pot into the cabinet could be a vital step.

Arsenal are looking to win the EFL Cup for the third time, after 1987 and 1993. However, the Gunners have lost more finals than any other side (six), most recently in 2018 against Guardiola's Man City.

It seems likely Arteta, who has never lost at Wembley with Arsenal as either a player (W3 D1) or a manager (W2 D2), will once again fall back on his sturdy defence and his tried and tested set-piece routines as a path to glory.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Eberechi Eze

Eze, who netted a stunner in Arsenal's Champions League win over Bayer Leverkusen in midweek, scored Palace's winner against Man City in the 2025 FA Cup final.

He could become the third player to score against an opponent in both an EFL Cup and an FA Cup final after Roberto Di Matteo (vs Middlesbrough) and Didier Drogba (vs Liverpool).

Man City – Rayan Cherki

Cherki has not been able to keep up the extraordinary form he showed at the back end of 2025 and into the start of this year, but he was hugely influential in getting City to this stage.

The Frenchman has been involved in four goals in his four EFL Cup appearances (three goals, one assist), averaging a goal involvement every 47 minutes in the competition.

No City player has created more chances this season in all competitions than Cherki, who is level with Jeremy Doku on 69.